Food uh-oh.

[Deleted]

A Subway employee told me this morning that the price of a box of green peppers went from fifteen dollars to forty-five dollars.

Uh-oh.

[Justin Thyme]

Now you know what to plant.

[mikeydokey]

Here comes the long awaited CHANGE that obama promised.

[Tsavodiner]

Inflation always begins in food and energy.

Get ready for $200/barrel oil next.

The only "change" we need is the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and ALL his "Czars".

[pompey]

Feb 17, 2011 4:51:58 GMT -5 Tsavodiner said:

The only "change" we need is the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and ALL his "Czars".

The GOP can't seem to find a viable candidate, though. Time's a-wastin' - what are you guys waiting for?

[LimitedRecourse]

2012, maybe?

[pompey]

Feb 17, 2011 10:02:42 GMT -5 LimitedRecourse said:

2012, maybe?

Yeah, I'd recommend getting started before then.

[LimitedRecourse]

When you're up against an unelectable opponent, any viable candidate will work. Obama has lost his support from just about everyone who got him elected. He has managed (as I predicted BEFORE he was in office 2 months) that he would make himself un-electable within his first 18 months in office. I was off by about 1 1/2 months.

[pompey]

Feb 17, 2011 10:18:31 GMT -5 LimitedRecourse said:

When you're up against an unelectable opponent, any viable candidate will work.

Problem being that the GOP doesn't have this "viable candidate".

Obama's approval ratings are currently around 48-50%. To call him "unelectable" is sheer wishful thinking.

[LimitedRecourse]

Calling Obama "viable" is the stretch. He has lost most of his support from the far left, and his leftist support is dwindling. He has no support from the right or far right and centrists don't trust his "shift" to appease them. The numbers from polls are wishful thinking and worded to be skewed (which is pretty much what ALL polls do from both sides). Obama is and will be unelectable.

[gridbug]

If Obama is powerful enough to control the price of green peppers then he can easily get elected. Oh the Power of the Obamamessiah!

[ssmynkint]

Let a thousand peppers bloom!

[pompey]

Feb 17, 2011 12:17:54 GMT -5 LimitedRecourse said:

Calling Obama "viable" is the stretch. He has lost most of his support from the far left, and his leftist support is dwindling. He has no support from the right or far right and centrists don't trust his "shift" to appease them.

Yet his approval rating has risen over the last 6 months! People are expressing their displeasure with Obama by giving him higher approval ratings! Amazing!

The numbers from polls are wishful thinking and worded to be skewed (which is pretty much what ALL polls do from both sides).

Really? Explain specifically how the wording of approval polls is "skewed".

Obama is and will be unelectable.

Oh, OK. Then I guess the GOP doesn't need to raise any money for the 2012 campaign. Keep your money in your pockets, Repubicans! The RNC's already got this one in the bag - Obama is unelectable!

Thanks for clearing that up, LR!

[creekcat62]

Could President Obama beat a strong Democrat contender? Hate to know my $5 Sub was going to be $10 soon.

[pompey]

Feb 17, 2011 13:04:14 GMT -5 creekcat62 said:

Could President Obama beat a strong Democrat contender?

None are even remotely forthcoming (much less "strong contenders"), so I'd say that this hypothetical is far, far too unlikely to ponder seriously.

[Justin Thyme]

I don't care who the president is. I've got this all figured out. I'll grow my own peppers and ride my bike to work.

[ssmynkint]

Peddlin' peppers.

[erinslion]

Every summer flats of strawberries are available for about $20 a flat. This time of year, flats of strawberries run between $45 and $60. They're out of season and have to come from much, much further away.

So what is the significance of the rising cost of peppers? Sure this isn't just a seasonal thing?

[Deleted]

> So what is the significance of the rising cost of peppers?

I figure my $5 sandwich will disappear to be replaced by a higher priced otherwise identical item, and there's no guarantee the price increase is limited to peppers.


> Sure this isn't just a seasonal thing?

Nope, I'm not, but I suspect there's more to it than that.

[mikeydokey]

Never try to explain economics to a liberal, everyone knows that all money comes from the guvmint.

[erinslion]

Oh Mikey, it has been so long since I bothered to pay attention to you.

Come to think of it, not going to bother now either.

Twit.

[erinslion]

Yoda, I understand your point perfectly well, but my point is simply that within the food service industry there are predictable price fluctuations based on availability. The price of strawberries fluctuates at the same time, for the same reason, every year. The inference here seems to be that, "A guy at Subway said the price of peppers has gone up, inflation runs rampant." I don't know what the going rate for peppers is anymore, I haven't worked in a kitchen for about two years now, but I DO know that the price of fruits and vegetables fluctuates annually depending on the season.

So maybe there has been a run on peppers and we should all stock up, but consider the possibility that the price of peppers ALWAYS go up during winter months and ALWAYS decreases as the weather turns and domestic sources become available.

[Tsavodiner]

"A guy at Subway said the price of peppers has gone up, inflation runs rampant."

That's way too simple.

As an investor and survivor of previous economic 'disturbances', one learns to look for things one's seen before in the everyday course of events, as the past tends to repeat itself in economics as well as other things.

Inflation is insidious; as a young person, I was caught in the wringer of the marriage penalty tax, increased taxes due to employment change, and the last recession. It hurt, but it taught me valuable lessons in finance and strategy for the future. Inflation develops over the course of years, except in the case of historical events such as the oil shocks of the Seventies, to which we are more vulnerable now than we were then.

However laudable the political change in the Middle East, the United States stands to lose if elements inimical to Western influence gain power, whether in Egypt or in Bahrain. If and when this happens, you will begin to see defensive price hikes in perishable commodities.

And, as one pundit has said: "Ben Bernanke wants inflation, and he's going to keep printing money until he gets it".

As a shrewd old street dog, when the price of my hoagie goes up, it means more than a growling belly.

Just my $0.02.

[LimitedRecourse]

"Explain specifically how the wording of approval polls is "skewed"."

I'm trying to decide if you are brainwashed, naive or simply blissfully ignorant. A poll can easily be skewed by the questions asked, the wording of the questions, the limiting of selectable answers and to whom the questions are asked. (There are other ways, but you'll have to take your own statistics class to learn more. One example:

"Do you feel President Obama is:

A. Handling the economy better than he was last year?
B. Working to create more jobs?
C. Fighting to ensure all Americans have affordable health care?
D. Is becoming a more effective President?

It doesn't matter which answer is chosen...the President will recieve a positive answer. If you only poll in a predominantly Democratic district, the responses will also be skewed left or positive for Obama. How you can NOT know this is beyond me. Maybe you're, like, twelve years old or something....

[Deleted]

I hope you're right, erinslion. Very much so.

[pompey]

Feb 18, 2011 8:29:54 GMT -5 LimitedRecourse said:

"Explain specifically how the wording of approval polls is "skewed"."

I'm trying to decide if you are brainwashed, naive or simply blissfully ignorant. A poll can easily be skewed by the questions asked, the wording of the questions, the limiting of selectable answers and to whom the questions are asked. (There are other ways, but you'll have to take your own statistics class to learn more. One example:

"Do you feel President Obama is:

A. Handling the economy better than he was last year?
B. Working to create more jobs?
C. Fighting to ensure all Americans have affordable health care?
D. Is becoming a more effective President?

It doesn't matter which answer is chosen...the President will recieve a positive answer. If you only poll in a predominantly Democratic district, the responses will also be skewed left or positive for Obama. How you can NOT know this is beyond me. Maybe you're, like, twelve years old or something....

Well, you've done an adequate job of describing how a poll might hypothetically be skewed, but you have failed to demonstrate an actual example of how such techniques are being used in actual polls.

The Feb 16 Rasmussen poll shows President Obama's approval rating is 48%. Can you point out which of the "skewing" techniques that you outlined above have been used in Rasmussen polling methodology in order to get this 48% number?

Once you've done that, I'd like to hear your explanation of why you think Rasmussen is artificially inflating the President's approval numbers.

[erinslion]

Tsavo, that was very intelligent and inciteful, no doubt.

Very well thought out.

I did oversimplify, but really I was only suggesting that this one specific example might not be an economic marker so much as a normal and annual fluctuation.

Now, I don't KNOW that at all, but I do remember very well that produce does rise dramatically during the off season in our country, and falls significantly afterward. Strawberries are the one good example I remember because we used a lot of them in the catering kitchen.

So again, I admit I don't know this to be the case with Subway and their pepper supply, but based on past experience I would still suggest it is a very good possibility.

Honestly, my old boss would be the person to ask as I'm sure she has a good idea of what a case of peppers costs seasonally.

Tsavo, I sincerely hope the price of your hoagie doesn't go up.

[pompey]

Core inflation did tick upwards in January, driven by increases in fuel and food costs.

We've been in a low-inflation (and even deflationary) pattern for a while due to the economic recession. The accelerating inflation is a consequence of increased global demand accompanying the return of growth.

Spiking food prices are part of what has set off the revolutions we are now seeing in the Middle East.

That said, it is important to note that, while there are downsides to inflation, there are also benefits. With small to moderate levels of inflation, it is easier for the US Treasury to honor debt obligations; furthermore, it incentivizes businesses to part with cash reserves and to invest in new capacity. It also incentivizes individuals to make investments in durable goods in order to avoid paying higher costs at later dates. With zero inflation or deflation, such incentives do not exist and purchasing can be delayed without fear of paying premiums in the future.

In other words, a small amount of inflation can have very salutary effects on the economy. Zero inflation or even deflation is both a sign of and a cause of economic stagnation, while high levels of inflation can place unsustainable stresses on household budgets and even initiate a cycle of "stagflation" (especially in conjunction with spiking energy costs as we witnessed in the 1970s).

[TNBear]

As for the cost of food, particularly fruits (not you Mikey) and veggies (this one might apply Mikey), a person might take a look at the rather unusual weather patterns the past month or so even down to Florida.

[Warkitty]

Now Bear, you know that's all Obama's fault...